Jonathan Rea again stands on the brink of WorldSBK history as, in two days’ time, he could become the first man to ever win four championships in a row and match Carl Fogarty with a quartet of big trophies.

The odds are stacked in favour of Rea who needs to win race one with Chaz Davies third or come second with Davies in fifth. The Welshman has a good track record at the French circuit, winning three of the last four, but comes in with an injured collarbone which he does say is not giving him any problems in day-to-day activity.

“The target is to try and win the championship at Magny-Cours. Right now, we’re on the way. At this point it’s my championship to lose, by stupidity or making mistakes. I want to try and do the best I can every weekend and limit mistakes. That target’s in sight now,” said Rea.

How he can do it in race one:

  • Rea 1st; Davies 3rd or worse
  • Rea 2nd; Davies 5th or worse
  • Rea 3rd; Davies 9th or worse
  • Rea 4th; Davies 12th or worse, vdM 2nd or worse
  • Rea 5th; Davies 14th or worse, vdM 2nd or worse
  • Rea 6th; Davies 15th or worse, vdM 2nd or worse
  • Rea 7th; Davies 16th or worse, vdM 2nd or worse

Or if he has to wait to race two:

Should Rea not already be the official champion by the time Sunday rolls around, the odds are still low for him to take the crown by the end of the weekend. Considering the variables that may be thrown his way on Saturday, the numbers are clear:

Rea needs to end the weekend with a 100-point advantage at the top of the standings. The easiest path would be to take 34 points or more over the course of both races, which would mathematically guarantee Rea a 100-point gap or higher.

But he could settle for fewer points if his rivals’ results fall in his favour. If things don’t go to plan, the Northern Irishman will face his second chance in two weeks at the new San Juan Circuit.

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